ZAW1. [Past] Awards: Academy Awards for the Films of 2003: My Nominee Predictions

Tags: 
  • Best Actor
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  • My Favorites To Be Nominated
  • 01. Bill Murray for Lost in Translation
  • 02. Sean Penn for Mystic River
  • 03. Jude Law for Cold Mountain
  • 04. Russell Crowe for Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
  • 05. Ben Kingsley for House of Sand and Fog
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  • Other Contenders
  • 06. Johnny Depp for Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl
  • 07. Jack Nicholson for Something's Gotta Give
  • 08. Paul Giamatti for American Splendor
  • 09. Peter Dinklage for The Station Agent
  • 10. Tom Cruise for The Last Samurai
  • 11. Billy Bob Thornton for Bad Santa
  • 12. Paddy Considine for In America
  • 13. Sean Penn for 21 Grams
  • 14. Ewan McGregor for Big Fish
  • 15. Nicolas Cage for Matchstick Men
  • 16. William H. Macy for The Cooler
  • 17. Tobey Maguire for Seabiscuit
  • 18. Jack Black for The School of Rock
  • 19. Chiwetel Ejiofor for Dirty Pretty Things
  • 20. Hayden Christensen for Shattered Glass
  • 21. Elijah Wood for The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
  • 22. Kurt Russell for Dark Blue
  • 23. Robert Downey Jr. for The Singing Detective
  • 24. Colin Firth for Girl with a Pearl Earring
  • 25. Jeff Bridges for Seabiscuit
  • 26. Will Ferrell for Elf
  • 27. Edward Burns for Confidence
  • 28. Lee Pace for Soldier's Girl
  •  
  • Best Actress
  •  
  • My Favorites To Be Nominated
  • 01. Charlize Theron for Monster
  • 02. Diane Keaton for Something's Gotta Give
  • 03. Nicole Kidman for Cold Mountain
  • 04. Naomi Watts for 21 Grams
  • 05. Jennifer Connelly for House of Sand and Fog
  •  
  • Other Contenders
  • 06. Hope Davis for American Splendor
  • 07. Cate Blanchett for Veronica Guerin
  • 08. Scarlett Johansson for Girl With A Pearl Earring
  • 09. Samantha Morton for In America
  • 10. Diane Lane for Under the Tuscan Sun
  • 11. Helen Mirren for Calendar Girls
  • 12. Evan Rachel Wood for Thirteen
  • 13. Charlotte Rampling for Swimming Pool
  • 14. Agnes Bruckner for Blue Car
  • 15. Toni Collette for Japanese Story
  • 16. Hope Davis for The Secret Lives of Dentists
  • 17. Jamie Lee Curtis for Freaky Friday
  • 18. Julia Roberts for Mona Lisa Smile
  • 19. Gwyneth Paltrow for Sylvia
  • 20. Cate Blanchett for The Missing
  • 21. Uma Thurman for Kill Bill, Vol. 1
  • 22. Samantha Morton for Morvern Callar
  • 23. Zooey Deschanel for All the Real Girls
  • 24. Elisabeth Moss for Virgin
  • 25. Keisha Castle-Hughes for Whale Rider
  • 26. Scarlett Johansson for Lost in Translation
  •  
  • Best Adapted Screenplay
  •  
  • My Favorites To Be Nominated
  • 01. The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
  • 02. American Splendor
  • 03. Seabiscuit
  • 04. Cold Mountain
  • 05. Mystic River
  •  
  • Other Contenders
  • 06. Big Fish
  • 07. Girl With a Pearl Earring
  • 08. House of Sand and Fog
  • 09. Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
  • 10. Whale Rider
  • 11. Matchstick Men
  • 12. Open Range
  • 13. The Secret Lives of Dentists
  • 14. Shattered Glass
  • 15. The Missing
  • 16. City of God
  •  
  • Best Director
  •  
  • My Favorites To Be Nominated
  • 01. Peter Jackson for The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
  • 02. Clint Eastwood for Mystic River
  • 03. Sofia Coppola for Lost in Translation
  • 04. Anthony Minghella for Cold Mountain
  • 05. Peter Weir for Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
  •  
  • Other Contenders
  • 06. Gary Ross for Seabiscuit
  • 07. Jim Sheridan for In America
  • 08. Vadim Perlman for House of Sand and Fog
  • 09. Ed Zwick for The Last Samurai
  • 10. Tim Burton for Big Fish
  • 11. Stephen Frears for Dirty Pretty Things
  • 12. Peter Webber for The Girl with the Pearl Earring
  • 13. Niki Caro for Whale Rider
  • 14. Shari Springer Berman & Robert Pulcini for American Splendor
  • 15. Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu for 21 Grams
  • 16. Richard Curtis for Love Actually
  • 17. Denys Arcand for The Barbarian Invasions
  • 18. Ridley Scott for Matchstick Men
  • 19. Andrew Stanton and Lee Unkrich for Finding Nemo
  • 20. Catherine Hardwicke for Thirteen
  • 21. Gus Van Sant for Elephant
  • 22. K├ítia Lund & Fernando Meirelles for City of God
  • 23. Peter Sollett for Raising Victor Vargas
  • 24. Gore Verginski for Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl
  •  
  • Best Original Screenplay
  •  
  • My Favorites To Be Nominated
  • 01. Lost in Translation
  • 02. In America
  • 03. The Station Agent
  • 04. Love Actually
  • 05. Dirty Pretty Things
  •  
  • Other Contenders
  • 06. Finding Nemo
  • 07. 21 Grams
  • 08. Bend It Like Beckham
  • 09. The Last Samurai
  • 10. A Mighty Wind
  • 11. Thirteen
  • 12. Bad Santa
  • 13. Calendar Girls
  • 14. The Barbarian Invasions
  • 15. The Cooler
  • 16. Something's Gotta Give
  • 17. Pieces of April
  • 18. School of Rock
  • 19. Kill Bill: Volume 1
  • 20. Intolerable Cruelty
  • 21. The Magdalene Sisters
  • 22. Elf
  • 23. Identity
  • 24. Confidence
  •  
  • Best Picture
  •  
  • My Favorites To Be Nominated
  • 01. The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
  • 02. Lost in Translation
  • 03. Mystic River
  • 04. Cold Mountain
  • 05. Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
  •  
  • Other Contenders
  • 06. Seabiscuit
  • 07. In America
  • 08. Last Samurai
  • 09. House of Sand and Fog
  • 10. Girl With a Pearl Earring
  • 11. Finding Nemo
  • 12. Dirty Pretty Things
  • 13. The Station Agent
  • 14. Big Fish
  • 15. Monster
  • 16. Whale Rider
  • 17. 21 Grams
  • 18. American Splendor
  • 19. Love Actually
  • 20. The Missing
  • 21. Bad Santa
  • 22. A Mighty Wind
  • 23. Shattered Glass
  • 24. Thirteen
  • 25. City of God
  • 26. School of Rock
  • 27. Bend It Like Beckham
  • 28. The Human Stain
  • 29. Raising Victor Vargas
  • 30. Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl
  •  
  • Best Supporting Actor
  •  
  • My Favorites To Be Nominated
  • 01. Tim Robbins for Mystic River
  • 02. Alec Baldwin for The Cooler
  • 03. Ken Watanabe for The Last Samurai
  • 04. Benicio Del Toro for 21 Grams
  • 05. Peter Sarsgaard for Shattered Glass
  •  
  • Other Contenders
  • 06. Albert Finney for Big Fish
  • 07. Djimon Hounsou for In America
  • 08. Sean Astin for The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
  • 09. Omar Sharif for Monsieur Ibrahim
  • 10. Geoffrey Rush for Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl
  • 11. Viggo Mortensen for The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
  • 12. Jeff Bridges for Seabiscuit
  • 13. Chris Cooper for Seabiscuit
  • 14. William H. Macy for Seabiscuit
  • 15. Eugene Levy for A Mighty Wind
  • 16. Sam Rockwell for Matchstick Men
  • 17. Kevin Bacon for Mystic River
  • 18. Judah Friedlander for American Splendor
  • 19. Paul Bettany for Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
  • 20. Thomas Sangster for Love Actually
  • 21. Bill Nighy for Love Actually
  • 22. Billy Boyd for The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
  • 23. Alessandro Nivola for Laurel Canyon
  • 24. John Noble for The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
  • 25. Ian McKellen for The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
  • 26. Troy Garity for A Soldier's Girl
  • 27. Orlando Bloom for The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
  • 28. Johnny Depp for Once Upon A Time In Mexico
  • 29. Tony Cox for Bad Santa
  •  
  • Best Supporting Actress
  •  
  • My Favorites To Be Nominated
  • 01. Renee Zellweger for Cold Mountain
  • 02. Scarlett Johansson for Lost in Translation
  • 03. Patricia Clarkson for Pieces of April
  • 04. Holly Hunter for Thirteen
  • 05. Shohreh Aghdashloo for House of Sand and Fog
  •  
  • Other Contenders
  • 06. Hope Davis for American Splendor
  • 07. Keisha Castle-Hughes for Whale Rider
  • 08. Maria Bello for The Cooler
  • 09. Marcia Gay Harden for Mystic River
  • 10. Melissa Leo for 21 Grams
  • 11. Frances McDormand for Laurel Canyon
  • 12. Samantha Morton for In America
  • 13. Emma Thompson for Love Actually
  • 14. Hope Davis for The Secret Lives of Dentists
  • 15. Emma Bolger for In America
  • 16. Sarah Bolger for In America
  • 17. Judith Ivey for What Alice Found
  • 18. Miranda Otto for The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
  • 19. Miranda Richardson for Spider
  • 20. Ludivine Sagnier for Swimming Pool
  • 21. Catherine O'Hara for A Mighty Wind
  • 22. Christina Ricci for Monster
  • 23. Julie Walters for Calendar Girls
  • 24. Alison Lohman for Matchstick Men
  • 25. Shaheen Khan for Bend it Like Beckham
  • 26. Helena Bonham Carter for Big Fish
  • 27. Geraldine McEwan for The Magdalene Sisters
  • 28. Anna Deveare Smith for The Human Stain
  • 29. Alison Lohman for Big Fish
  • 30. Chiaki Kuriyama for Kill Bill, Vol. 1
Author Comments: 

I've listed all of the contestants that I think have a reasonable chance of securing a nomination ordered by likelihood. I've italicized the films or roles I've yet to see.

I've highlighted the eventual nominees and put a strike through the nominees I didn't have on my list of possible nominees.

Plundering: DGeiser13's Best of 2003, Hollywood Elsewhere: Oscar Balloon, HSX: NominOptions 2004, Movie City News: Awards Scoreboard 2003, OscarWatch

Cloned From: 

Re: Best Picture

I've heard a little buzz about "Finding Nemo" getting nominated for Best Picture, but I seriously doubt that'll happen. Sure, it was a high-grossing, popular, wonderful movie, but I think the new Best Animated Feature category (for which "Finding Nemo" is a lock) was imposed mainly to reduce animated movies getting nominated as Best Pictures.

Also, I think you may be underestimating the Academy's love of the historical epic, in leaving off "Cold Mountain", "The Last Samurai", and "Master and Commander: Far Side of the World."

Good predictions, but I'm more inclined to agree with your guesses for the acting categories. We shall see, however, in late January...

AJ, I've not finished ordering by likelihood yet. As you can see everything is currently in alphabetical order. Nor have I added all of the possible contenders. But I will have it done by the time the nominations come out.

Did anyone see the Producers Guild Noms today? They're usually an important precursor. They went with:
Cold Mountain
Return of the King
The Last Samurai
Mystic River
Seabiscuit
Master & Commander

Sure looks like the epics are well-loved by producers. I don't think that the list will be AS dominated by huge films at the Oscars. I just don't know which picture is losing steam.

Ah, I see you are suspecting a better showing for In America than most are, and frankly, I will not be shocked if you correct!

Darn, that's one of those calls I could make better if I'd actually watched In America...

Great list; I love reading these predictions!

Shalom, y'all!

L. Bangs

In America is quite heart-tugging, but I can't shake the feeling that it really is a little too small to be nominated. Don't get me wrong, I know that small things have been nominated, but this one feels...off, somehow.

I think that Sheridan's personal ties to the material are keeping him in the race.

Man, I hope you're right about "The Station Agent"'s screenplay. I would hate for it to pass by without any nods. And much as I loved Peter Dinklage in it, I don't think it's a performance the Academy would like.

The Writers Guild Awards are gonna clear up the screenplay categories signifigantly.

Dinklage probably has no shot at the moment. The Screen Actors Guild Awards will be the last gasp for the acting categories, and I doubt Dinklage will score there. Truth be told, I keep flip-flopping on Depp, so I'm not sure any quirky choices are safe.

It seems to me that Peter Dinklage has a shot at a nomination.

I have increased my expectations for Dinklage, but I still think he's a 6th placer.

Tomorrow is gonna be fun.

Oh, and I was completely wrong about Dinklage and the SAGs.